Australian Overseas Departures

Over the past ten years, Australian overseas departures have grown from 1.7 million to 3.2 million. This represents a strong average and annual growth of 6.5 percent. This paper analyses outbound travel demand to each destination country using the travel demand models of short-term resident departures. The models are specified in terms of a double logarithmic linear functional form, with overseas departures as the dependent variable and real household disposable income prices of travel and accommodation in Australia, and overseas and the exchange rate as independent variables .The models were estimated using historical time series data from 1973 to 1998. The data were obtained from several sources such as the World Tourism Organization, Australian Bureau of Statistics, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. The results suggest that the estimated elasticity parameters are consistent with standard economic theory. The number of short-term resident departures are positively influenced by per capita real household disposable income; and the price of domestic travel and accommodation, and negatively influenced by the price of travel and accommodation overseas. The estimated demand models were used to develop the Tourism Forecasting Council's long-run forecasts. The forecasts suggest that the number of short-term resident departures will increase strongly over the next ten years, largely due to the strength of the Australian economy, competitive travel prices, and Australians' interest in experiencing different cultures and lifestyles.